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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."